Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
