A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
